PAPER BOOK STOPPEDlast write 27 days ago — see /meridian/history

Beat Kalshi.
Beat Polymarket.
Or watch us try, in public.

Meridian runs five strategy books across Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes — paper today, real money once the numbers earn it. Every bankroll snapshot, every pick, every win and every loss is on this page. If the bot stops ticking we tell you. No fake testimonials. No “AI-powered alpha” nonsense.

TOTAL BANKROLL
$25,000.00
DEPLOYED
$6,117.37
OPEN PICKS
26
WINS · LOSSES
0 · 0
CUMULATIVE ROI
0.00%

Five strategy books. One bankroll.

Each book gets the same starting capital and an independent strategy. Whichever earns its keep stays funded. Whichever bleeds gets cut. No human override.

BOOK / 01
Conservative

High-confidence, low-Kelly. Looks for edges where consensus + signal agree, sits out everything else.

BOOK / 02
Aggressive

Higher Kelly fractions, more deployment, accepts higher variance. The bankroll-builder when right.

BOOK / 03
Cross-market arbitrage

Pairs the same outcome across Kalshi and Polymarket when their order books disagree by more than 2¢.

BOOK / 04
Fast reaction

Sentiment-shock first mover. Reddit + Hacker News + NewsAPI streams scored against open markets every minute.

BOOK / 05
Adaptive

Continually re-weights itself against the prior week's win rate per signal class. Closest to a learning loop.

Per-book state right now

full history →

Last write: 2026-05-07T17:32:14.807+00:00. Paper book has been stalled since the timestamp above. We're fixing it; this page tells the truth either way.

BOOKBANKROLLOPENDEPLOYEDW/LROI
Conservative$5,000.008$1,179.840 / 00.00%
Aggressive$5,000.005$2,000.000 / 00.00%
Cross-Market Arb$5,000.000$0.000 / 00.00%
Fast Reaction$5,000.001$171.170 / 00.00%
Adaptive$5,000.0012$2,766.360 / 00.00%

Pricing

Free tier sees every paid number — delayed 30 minutes. Paid tier is real-time + alerts.

FREE
$0forever
  • Top-3 picks delayed by 30 minutes
  • Full historical bankroll chart
  • Per-book performance breakdown
  • Live stall disclosure (this page)
Start watching
CASUAL
$29per month
  • Real-time picks as they fire
  • All five books, not just top-3
  • Per-strategy reasoning + confidence
  • Email digest each morning
Upgrade to Casual
PRO
$99per month
  • Everything in Casual
  • Push alerts via SMS + web push
  • Custom strategy weight overrides
  • Backtest sandbox (paper-only)
  • Cancel anytime, no lock-in
Upgrade to Pro
LIFETIME
$499one-time
  • Everything in Pro, forever
  • First-look access to new books
  • Direct line to the engine team
  • Locked-in pricing through real-money launch
Buy lifetime

Plain-English questions

Is this real money?
Right now: no. Meridian is paper-trading. The bankroll, picks, deployment, and P&L you see on this site are paper. Once we have enough settled picks to read a real ROI, we will scale to real money — and we'll announce it on this page before we do. The number you'll see here either way is the real number.
Where is the actual data coming from?
predict-api.cortivex.ai — a Cloudflare Worker that ticks every 15 minutes against Kalshi and Polymarket order books, pulls signals from Reddit + Hacker News + NewsAPI, scores each open market via naive Bayes + Kelly sizing, and writes picks + bankroll snapshots into Supabase. /meridian reads that Supabase state in real time.
What happens if the bot stalls?
We disclose it on this page within minutes. The status pill at the top of every Meridian page is honest — green when fresh, amber when stalled, red when the worker is unreachable. We won't quietly hide downtime.
Can I cancel?
Yes. Monthly subscriptions cancel anytime via the account page (Stripe Customer Portal). Lifetime is one-time and not refundable after 72 hours.
Disclaimer · For entertainment/informational purposes. Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry risk of total loss. We don't guarantee outcomes. Past performance — paper or live — does not predict future performance. You must be of legal age and in a jurisdiction where prediction markets are permitted to participate on Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other venue.
© 2026 Patten Labs — Meridian is part of Cortivex.